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Black Desert Online – Mysterious Boxes

Introduction

With the Black Desert Online Patch from the 5th October 2016 EU/NA finally got the „Mysterious Box“ for rings (60,000), earrings (70,000), belts (60,000), and necklaces (90,000). Those boxes basically can contain any piece of accessory within the game – including things like Ogre’s Ring, Basilik’s Belt or Ring of Crescent Guardian.

This article is going to cover some information regarding those boxes and to clear some possible open questions. Yet, please remember that those boxes are heavily influenced by pure RNG tho you experience could be different.

FYI: With the open continuously option you open boxes as fast as you can spam your space bar

Facts

The chance to receive the “Bares” version out of a Mysterious Box is roughly 35%.
The rarer an item the smaller is the chance to receive the item from a Mysterious Box.
The Mysterious Boxes are “rigged” which simply means the amount of a certain item in the rolling window does not equal their actual chance to receive said item.
The moment you press Space the item you get is decided.
The other green items – not Bares – have roughly the same chance to be aquired.

What does a Mysterious Box really cost?

To consider the real costs of a box we need to look at the actual gain from opening a Box. For the rest of this article we will stick with Mysterious Necklace Boxes but everything from now can just be copy pasted for Rings, Earrings and Belts.

A Mysterious Necklace costs 90,000 Silver at the blacksmith and you will get one Necklace out of it. We can now:

Use this Necklace for our equipment.
Sell the Necklace at the NPC or at the auction house.
Melt down the Necklace then sell the yield at the auction house.
Melt down the Necklace then use the yield to produce other things.
Use the Necklace for failstacking.
Try to enhance the Necklace to sell it on the auction house.

All those actions result in a different value for the Necklace. Looking at a Bares Necklace the results would be roughly:

NPC: 16,000
AH with Value Pack: ~80,000
AH without Value Pack: ~60,000
Melting: ~20,000 after sold the yield on the auction house
Melting and use the yield: highly varies depending on what you do with it
Use the Necklace: saving the silver to buy the Necklace / time to farm the Necklace
1 Failstack for 180,000 Silver
Using ~6 Necklaces for one PRI 540,000 silver

On the other hand we have to take into account that we only get a Bares Necklace every three Mysterious Necklaces. Due to that we have to calculate what we did for the Bares Necklace for all the other Necklaces as well. In terms of selling items on the auction house we also have to take into consideration that we can only sell a limited amount of items at the same time and the items have to be sold.

Given that fact we can basically eliminate the selling options. With this we either melt down the Necklaces received or use them for failstacking. As the price for gathering failstacks is the same on all items and the yield on melting down a Necklace is not that much of a difference in combination with the fact that rare drops are “rare” we can say that you get roughly ~20,000 – ~30,000 silver back for each box you open not yielding a rare Necklace.

With that the cost for a Mysterious Necklace is ~65,000 silver in average without considering rare drops.

If we now add rare drops into the equation:
Ogre’s Ring
Bensho’s Necklace
Scala Necklace
Ancient’s Guardian Seal

The price for a Mysterious Necklace will decrease further.

Ogre’s Ring will either be sold for ~80,000,000 silver or used.
Bensho’s will be sold or melted down for at least two Hard Shards.
Scala will be sold or melted down for at least one Hard Shard.
Ancient’s Guardian Seal will be sold or used.

With the Ogre’s Ring being the actual reason for most people to buy those lovely RNG’s Necklaces we will remove that one from further calculations holding it as the final goal. That roughly reduced the cost for a Mysterious Necklace down to ~50,000 adding Bensho’s, Scala, and the Ancient’s Guardian Seal.

The Final Goal

Comparing our price per Mysterious Necklace against the costs of buying a Ogre’s Ring not checking Pre Order prices we can now calculate the amount of Mysterious Necklaces we are allowed to buy without paying more than the price of a single Ogre’s Ring.


95,000,000 / 50,000 = 1,900 Mysterious Necklaces

As long as we get a single Ogre’s Ring in less than ~1,900 Mysterious Necklace we have paid the same price than buying the Ogre’s Ring of the auction house.
As long as the Ogre’s Ring has a higher chance than 0,053% to drop from a Mysterious Necklace it is worth to buy them if you goal is to get a Ogre’s Ring.

Given that fact that prices of all the items connected to Necklaces could/will decrease long term wise we might want to increase the costs per Mysterious Necklace resulting in a lower amount of Mysterious Necklaces we can buy with the same silver than the costs of an Ogre’s Ring.

I’d conclude that as long as you get one Ogre’s Ring every ~1,500 Mysterious Necklaces you are below the price of an Ogre’s Ring sniped from the AH. You can then add the actual price you would pay on the Ogre’s Ring Pre Order and you might – again – reach ~1,750 – ~2,000 Necklaces per Ogre’s Ring.

Some more Information on Rings, Earrings, and Belts

While the initial price of those Mysterious Boxes is lower, while yielding roughly the same amount of items on melting, you have to keep into consideration that the “First Prize” for them is worth a lot less silver than one Ogre’s Ring.
Well, on the other hand there are a lot more “rare” yields you will get, as they are worth way less than the rare drops from the Mysterious Necklace. All of this roughly results in the following costs per Mysterious Box:

Mysterious Ring: ~30,000 – 40,000 silver per try
Mysterious Earring: ~40,000 – 50,000 silver per try
Mysterious Belt: ~30,000 – 40,000 silver per try

Now knowing all of this the last thing I can do us wish you good luck! In case you ask for my personal experience I’d say those boxes are fine to use but keep in mind: RNG is a bitch.

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